Genetic Genealogy

World Vital Records

I've been reading Blaine Bettinger's series on The Genetic Genealogy Marketplace (Part 1 and Part II) with great interest and am a bit surprised by a few things.  The first is where Blaine estimates that the total number of people tested falls somewhere between 600,000 - 700,000 people.  With all of the buzz genetic genealogy gets in the media these days, I was left with the impression the market was bigger then it really is.  When you think of the tens of millions of people across the world pursuing some form of genealogy research, this number is really quite small - which means the potential market for this service is huge. 

The second item of interest from Blaine's series is the cost range of the different tests offered today.  While the field is growing quickly, cost is the biggest barrier facing potential customers.  While you can get tests on the lower end of the price spectrum, to get information that is of any real value you need to spend at the higher end of the range.  For example, 12 marker tests are usually the cheapest.  My results from Family Tree DNA show I have 141 exact matches for 12 markers...which means I probably shared a common ancestor with these folks sometime in pre-recorded history.  That statement may be a bit of an exaggeration, but my point is the cheaper tests will only show how your distant ancestors migrated out of Africa, and where they generally ended up.  My opinion is 12 marker matches will not give you enough information for genealogy research purposes.  I currently have no 37 marker matches (the most expensive test at FTDNA at the time I ordered it), however if ever do get any, the likelihood of a recent common ancestor match with someone is a lot greater.

I recommend people get the most markers tested as they can afford (more markers the better) and don't get discouraged if there are no matches right away, or if you don't get the resolution you expected on your genetic point of origin.  As time passes, and the business gets bigger and bigger, millions of those potential customers will get tested and the results for us early adapters will continue getting better.

Thanks Blaine for an interesting series.

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Comments

[Tim Agazio]

Good luck with that 67 marker test! They didn't have it when I bought the test at FTDNA a little over a year ago. I actually learned a lot from my 37 marker test...I haven't found any matches, but got tons of new info on where my "bloodline" began.

Tim

[Steve Danko]

I agree with you about ordering the higher resolution tests. For my Y-DNA study, where I'm trying to prove a connection to a purported 2nd cousin once removed, I figured the more markers the better. I just ordered the 67 marker Y-DNA tests from Family Tree DNA and expect to have the results by the New Year! Can't wait!

[Blaine]

I'm glad you enjoyed the series! I completely agree with both your points - for Y-DNA tests, get as many markers as you can afford. I would also recommend the full mtDNA sequence, although that is still very expensive (even the Genetic Genealogist hasn't had that done yet!).

And the waiting is something that's hard to do, but for many of us, it will surely pay off in the long run. Great post!